A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few government figures or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has has something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
